Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Saturday 02 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 65724 (+1883) 1130786 (+36056) 161551 (+9227) 903511 (+24946)
Italy 28236 (+269) 207428 (+1965) 78249 (+2304) 100943 (-608)
United Kingdom 27510 (+739) 177454 (+6201) 0 (+0) 149944 (+5462)
Spain 24824 (+281) 242988 (+3349) 142450 (+4466) 75714 (-1398)
France 24594 (+218) 167346 (+168) 50212 (+736) 92540 (-786)
Belgium 7703 (+109) 49032 (+513) 11892 (+316) 29437 (+88)
Germany 6736 (+113) 164077 (+1068) 126900 (+3400) 30441 (-2445)
Brazil 6410 (+509) 92109 (+6729) 38039 (+2104) 47660 (+4116)
Iran 6091 (+63) 95646 (+1006) 76318 (+1215) 13237 (-272)
Netherlands 4893 (+98) 39791 (+475) 0 (+0) 34898 (+377)
China 4633 (+0) 82874 (+12) 77642 (+32) 599 (-20)
Canada 3391 (+207) 55061 (+1825) 22751 (+1328) 28919 (+290)
Turkey 3258 (+84) 122392 (+2188) 53808 (+4922) 65326 (-2818)
Sweden 2653 (+67) 21520 (+428) 1005 (+0) 17862 (+361)
Mexico 1859 (+127) 19224 (+1425) 11423 (+0) 5942 (+1298)
Switzerland 1754 (+17) 29705 (+119) 23900 (+500) 4051 (-398)
Ireland 1265 (+33) 20833 (+221) 13386 (+0) 6182 (+188)
India 1223 (+69) 37257 (+2395) 10007 (+939) 26027 (+1387)
Russia 1169 (+96) 114431 (+7933) 13220 (+1601) 100042 (+6236)
Peru 1124 (+73) 40459 (+3483) 11129 (+724) 28206 (+2686)
Ecuador 1063 (+163) 26336 (+1402) 1913 (+355) 23360 (+884)
Portugal 1007 (+18) 25351 (+306) 1647 (+128) 22697 (+160)
Indonesia 800 (+8) 10551 (+433) 1591 (+69) 8160 (+356)
Romania 744 (+27) 12567 (+327) 4328 (+311) 7495 (-11)
Poland 651 (+7) 13105 (+228) 3491 (+255) 8963 (-34)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 234761 (+5581) 3315117 (+94145) 1001336 (+40485)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 229161 ( +3128) 3199735 ( +38881) 1003147 ( +29497)
Sun 03 May 2020 232009 ( +2848) 3235441 ( +35706) 1031175 ( +28028)
Mon 04 May 2020 234596 ( +2587) 3268160 ( +32719) 1057689 ( +26514)
Tue 05 May 2020 236941 ( +2344) 3298083 ( +29923) 1082665 ( +24976)
Wed 06 May 2020 239060 ( +2119) 3325398 ( +27316) 1106099 ( +23434)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 4633 (+0) 82874 (+12) 77642 (+32)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 3836 ( +1) 81597 ( +0) 76907 ( +2)
Sun 03 May 2020 3836 ( +0) 81597 ( +0) 76909 ( +2)
Mon 04 May 2020 3837 ( +0) 81597 ( +0) 76911 ( +2)
Tue 05 May 2020 3837 ( +0) 81597 ( +0) 76912 ( +1)
Wed 06 May 2020 3838 ( +0) 81597 ( +0) 76913 ( +1)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 24824 (+281) 242988 (+3349) 142450 (+4466)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 23518 ( +66) 228803 ( +797) 136216 ( +3335)
Sun 03 May 2020 23575 ( +57) 229506 ( +704) 139384 ( +3168)
Mon 04 May 2020 23624 ( +49) 230127 ( +621) 142382 ( +2998)
Tue 05 May 2020 23667 ( +43) 230674 ( +547) 145211 ( +2828)
Wed 06 May 2020 23704 ( +37) 231156 ( +482) 147870 ( +2660)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 28236 (+269) 207428 (+1965) 78249 (+2304)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 27127 ( +106) 198696 ( +631) 77910 ( +1989)
Sun 03 May 2020 27222 ( +95) 199263 ( +567) 79826 ( +1916)
Mon 04 May 2020 27307 ( +85) 199772 ( +509) 81666 ( +1840)
Tue 05 May 2020 27383 ( +76) 200229 ( +457) 83428 ( +1762)
Wed 06 May 2020 27450 ( +68) 200639 ( +410) 85111 ( +1683)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 27510 (+739) 177454 (+6201) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 25625 ( +460) 171107 ( +2166) nan ( +nan)
Sun 03 May 2020 26043 ( +417) 173059 ( +1952) nan ( +nan)
Mon 04 May 2020 26420 ( +377) 174814 ( +1755) nan ( +nan)
Tue 05 May 2020 26760 ( +340) 176387 ( +1574) nan ( +nan)
Wed 06 May 2020 27065 ( +305) 177795 ( +1408) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 65724 (+1883) 1130786 (+36056) 161551 (+9227)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 64448 ( +963) 1085735 ( +12857) 170722 ( +8075)
Sun 03 May 2020 65297 ( +848) 1097339 ( +11604) 178553 ( +7832)
Mon 04 May 2020 66041 ( +744) 1107786 ( +10447) 186095 ( +7542)
Tue 05 May 2020 66692 ( +651) 1117171 ( +9385) 193308 ( +7213)
Wed 06 May 2020 67260 ( +568) 1125585 ( +8415) 200162 ( +6854)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 24594 (+218) 167346 (+168) 50212 (+736)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 23946 ( +105) 165440 ( +232) 62778 ( +3249)
Sun 03 May 2020 24036 ( +90) 165634 ( +195) 66205 ( +3427)
Mon 04 May 2020 24113 ( +77) 165798 ( +163) 69818 ( +3614)
Tue 05 May 2020 24178 ( +65) 165935 ( +137) 73629 ( +3811)
Wed 06 May 2020 24233 ( +56) 166050 ( +115) 77649 ( +4019)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 6736 (+113) 164077 (+1068) 126900 (+3400)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 6605 ( +70) 157633 ( +272) 122371 ( +1116)
Sun 03 May 2020 6667 ( +62) 157868 ( +235) 123348 ( +977)
Mon 04 May 2020 6722 ( +55) 158070 ( +202) 124202 ( +854)
Tue 05 May 2020 6770 ( +48) 158245 ( +175) 124947 ( +745)
Wed 06 May 2020 6812 ( +42) 158396 ( +151) 125595 ( +648)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 4893 (+98) 39791 (+475) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 4724 ( +34) 39369 ( +257) 169 ( +0)
Sun 03 May 2020 4754 ( +30) 39599 ( +230) 169 ( +0)
Mon 04 May 2020 4781 ( +26) 39805 ( +206) 169 ( +0)
Tue 05 May 2020 4804 ( +23) 39990 ( +184) 169 ( +0)
Wed 06 May 2020 4825 ( +21) 40154 ( +165) 169 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 7703 (+109) 49032 (+513) 11892 (+316)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 7583 ( +55) 48426 ( +350) 11391 ( +89)
Sun 03 May 2020 7630 ( +47) 48739 ( +313) 11469 ( +78)
Mon 04 May 2020 7671 ( +40) 49018 ( +279) 11537 ( +68)
Tue 05 May 2020 7705 ( +34) 49266 ( +248) 11597 ( +60)
Wed 06 May 2020 7734 ( +29) 49486 ( +220) 11649 ( +52)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 2653 (+67) 21520 (+428) 1005 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 2630 ( +49) 21312 ( +383) 1099 ( +36)
Sun 03 May 2020 2674 ( +44) 21672 ( +360) 1133 ( +34)
Mon 04 May 2020 2713 ( +40) 22010 ( +338) 1166 ( +33)
Tue 05 May 2020 2749 ( +35) 22326 ( +316) 1197 ( +31)
Wed 06 May 2020 2780 ( +32) 22620 ( +295) 1226 ( +29)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 651 (+7) 13105 (+228) 3491 (+255)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 657 ( +15) 12843 ( +156) 3684 ( +230)
Sun 03 May 2020 671 ( +14) 12984 ( +141) 3907 ( +224)
Mon 04 May 2020 684 ( +13) 13112 ( +128) 4123 ( +216)
Tue 05 May 2020 695 ( +11) 13227 ( +115) 4329 ( +206)
Wed 06 May 2020 706 ( +10) 13331 ( +104) 4523 ( +194)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 1754 (+17) 29705 (+119) 23900 (+500)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 1699 ( +8) 28759 ( +24) 22869 ( +120)
Sun 03 May 2020 1706 ( +7) 28779 ( +20) 22971 ( +102)
Mon 04 May 2020 1712 ( +6) 28796 ( +17) 23058 ( +87)
Tue 05 May 2020 1718 ( +6) 28811 ( +15) 23131 ( +74)
Wed 06 May 2020 1722 ( +5) 28824 ( +13) 23194 ( +63)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 01 May 2020 6091 (+63) 95646 (+1006) 76318 (+1215)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 5839 ( +24) 93282 ( +398) 76760 ( +867)
Sun 03 May 2020 5861 ( +22) 93643 ( +361) 77547 ( +787)
Mon 04 May 2020 5881 ( +20) 93969 ( +326) 78260 ( +713)
Tue 05 May 2020 5898 ( +18) 94264 ( +295) 78905 ( +645)
Wed 06 May 2020 5915 ( +16) 94530 ( +267) 79487 ( +582)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.